The United States Department of Agriculture has announced figures about the 2015/2016 raisin-crop. .
According to their latest information the world will have, for the season 2015/2016, a smaller raisin-crop of about 6 percent viz. 1.13/1.14 mln tons available.
The USDA comes to this figure, realizing that the Turlkish raisin-crop is importantly lower but fortunately the USA has a better crop and according to their figures/information Iran, should also have a fairly good crop… whereas we were to understand, some weeks ago that Iran should have a crop which is 10/15 percent down in comparison with a year before.
It is highly important that it is brought to clearness whether this difference of 10/15 percent shrinkage was indeed right, respectively that Iran should suddenly have an unforeseen surplus. Until then we are puzzled.
We have said it before: China, India, Chile, South Africa and the rest of the world should have a normal crop in order to keep things in a certain balance.
Another quantity of abt 20/30,000 tons less should give a lot of anxiety and what is more……logically higher prices in the market. That sounds fine for farmers, packers and dealers but experience learns that shortages are normally followed by bumper crops and as a result:…..prices will go down the drain again.
A more stable situation between demand and supply is the best for every-one.
As far as South-Africa is concerned: listening to the various farmers a very good crop seems to come to the horizon but but but…. ” don’t catch your chicken before they’re hatched” is an old expression. meaning that there is always the risk that something adverse can happen before every raisin is in the warehouse.
End of October/early November shall be the time again to put prices on qualities and carefully perhaps also on quantities.
For the rest: let us wait and see….