Dear Readers,
There are times that markets do not really move, neither upwards nor downwards. We are amid such time.
Only significant changes in demand or supply can get a market really moving.
In most cases the changes do not come from the DEMAND-side because patterns on that side show normally only limited in- or decreases over a longer period of time.
Changes normally come from the SUPPLY-side because on that side, despite of all the efforts of the raisin-farmer, we have each year to live with either voluminous, normal or small crops in one country or another.
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If such situation turns up with more than one important supplier, then an upward jump in prices is not abnormal because we must realize that in such situation the fresh-fruit farmers and the wineries will also try to take their share.
With all uncertainties of the moment it could become important to look at the figures underneath:
So far and over the past years, there is, in general, a fair supply-side.
| California | abt | 150.000 tons |
| Turkey | abt | 225.000 tons |
| Iran | abt | 125.000 tons |
| Chile | abt | 70.000 tons |
| China | abt | 30.000 tons |
| S-Africa | abt | 40.000 tons |
| Uzbekistan | abt | 35.000 tons |
| Afganistan | abt | 30.000 tons |
| Argentina | abt | 30.000 tons |
Altogether good for abt. 700/750.000 ton in an average year.
Let’s face now the demand side:
| EU | 330.000 tons |
| Russian Fed. | 50.000 tons |
| Japan | 30.000 tons |
| Austtralia | 30.000 tons |
| Canada | 30.000 tons |
| China | 25.000 tons |
| Brazil | 25.000 tons |
| Irak | 20.000 tons |
| United States | 20.000 tons |
| Mexico | 20.000 tons |
| Ukraine | 20.000 tons |
| U.A.E | 20.000 tons |
| Kazakstan | 15.000 tons |
| others | 75.000 tons |
which makes a total of abt 700.000 tons as well.
The above means that under normal circumstances supply and demand are more or less in balance but when something goes wrong with one of the two main-suppliers, the raisin-world can be jeopardized and prices can go through the roof.
Unfortunately, the raisin market does not have the possession of a buffer-stock in the various ware-houses in Europe, where the bulk is consumed. In other words, we must be aware that when something really goes wrong, there is no instrument available to put a hold on it.
From Turkey we hear that the worry is still there that the frost, hail and rains in the beginning of this season has brought serious damage. Controllers are now going out into the fields to get the latest estimations of what may be expected or may not. In the beginning of August those figures will come available.
From California no news as yet. We feel we have to wait until the first weeks of August as well to get an idea of what to be expected of their crop resp. of their future pricing.