At the end of August we made clear in our bulletin that Californina as well as Turkey should have, at least, a fairly big-sized crop.
Being the two biggest suppliers of raisins, worldwide, we may conclude that obviously one can exclude a shortage in the raisin-market for the coming season.
Of course, we must realize that we cannot do without the normal contribution of India, Iran and China in order to have a balanced world-market and in this respect we are of the opinion that India and China will have a normal crop, where Iran reporting to have a big crop.
If the above is true, there shall be hardly any reasons to foresee price-increases. On the contrary, we would say.
We all have noticed already that under the pressure of a heavy crop, Turkey was forced to decrease its prices to levels around USD 1500/1550.- per ton.
The last time we have seen such price-levels, goes back quite some years ago and unless there will arise severe crop failures in one of the big supplying countries, it is not foreseeable that these levels will easily be reached again.
At least as long as we speak about Thompsons and Thompson-like raisins.
Although the excessive high levels for golden raisin shall also be something of the past, the supply of golden raisins, at least the bigger counts, still stays behind by the still growing demand for top-quality.
In this respect we have, recently, been visiting the farmers in South Africa in order to see with our own eyes how the new crop is developing.
The general impression is that tonnage-wise it will be a normal crop (between 45 and 50.000 tons) but is always dangerous and presumptuous when the crop has to stay outside for another two and a half till three months but let’s hope mother nature will be kind to her this year.
Having said the above, we must realize however that, again this season, there is a substantial carry-over (mostly Thompsons), which still has to find a home and that will not contribute for much better prices for Thompsons.
This is one of the reasons we can not yet give any clue as far as prices for the new crop are concerned but quotes should be around USD 2150.- for Thompson mediums.
We have to keep fingers crossed and wait and see, for another week or three how things develop further.
Latest news: according to the information in the market, there seem to be some concern about the quality of the Turkish crop
It was reported earlier that rain and cold weather in certain areas, have had their influences (smaller/mouldy raisins).
It will be a matter of time to find out whether the impact of the above is ignorable or serious.
California: The latest information we get says that the crop is between 25 and 40 percent smaller than last year. That is quite substantial we would say. How this will result in pricing is something we have to see.
Iran: this country seems to bring up this season abt 170.000 tons. For golden mediums they are opening at USD 2900.- per ton.
More later…..